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Many people like to predict what will happen in the real estate market, including me. And frequently we’re wrong more than we are right.
Here’s what really happened this year, regardless of who thought it or not:
1. Prices have dropped. Home values have decreased by 2-3%, though many properties on the market are overpriced and may need to come down 7-10% just to get to their real price. Overpricing is being corrected.
2. Inventory has climbed. In San Diego, the number of properties on the market is about 80% higher than it was at the beginning of the year.
3. Sales have slowed about 5%.
4. Seasonality may be back. Over the past 4-5 years, sales haven’t dropped much throughout the year. Buyers were buying all year long. Showings of homes have slowed a little, which may be a sign that our sales seasons may be back.
5. Seller’s market is over. As inventory climbs, the market is heading toward equilibrium, which means buyers have more control and can get things they want, too.
What’s happening right now is a “stand off” of sorts between sellers and buyers. It’s happened several times in our market over the past 5 years, and sellers have almost always won against the buyers. Now the buyers are winning more, though not always.
Next month, I’ll predict what we can expect to see in 2019. Hope Your Holidays were good.
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